A handicap index is a measure of a player’s capability in relation to par.
It “measures your demonstrated ability when playing well.”
It is not the score you are expected to shoot every time. This is a very common misconception.
Again, your handicap index is NOT what you are expected to shoot every time.
On a par 72 course, a scratch golfer is not expected to shoot 72 every time just as a 13 handicap is not expected to shoot 85 every time.
In fact, according to the USGA, if your handicap is accurate:
- you are only expected to shoot your course handicap or better 15-20% of the time.
- you are expected to shoot 2-4 strokes over your course handicap on any given round.
- you should be able to beat your course handicap by three shots about 5% of the time, or once out of every 20 rounds.
Course Handicap
Your course handicap will many times be different than your handicap index.
The course handicap is calculated based on the course the course rating and slope of the course you are playing.
Let’s use an example to illustrate my point:
- You are a 13 Index and you’re playing a par 72 course.
- 72 +13 = 85.
- So taking what we learned above, you should expect to shoot 87-89.
- And if this happens to be one of your 1 in 20 exceptional rounds, you’ll shoot an 82! Right?
Wrong! (probably).
If you did this math before you played a course such as Pebble Beach, you would be starting with false expectations.
Using this calculator, we can see that although your handicap index is 13, your course handicap at Pebble Beach from the gold tees (rating of 73.4, slope of 137) is 17!
That means you should expect to shoot 91-93 and if it does happen to be your 1 in 20 exceptional rounds, you should expect to shoot 86.
Let me repeat that:
From the gold tees at Pebble Beach (6472 yards), a 13 index should expect to shoot 86 only 5% of the time.
Now what if a13 index played Pebble from the tips?
- Course handicap: 20
- Expected score range: 94-96
- Chance of breaking 90: About 5%
- Add in PGA Tour conditions: virtually zero chance of breaking 100
Course Handicaps For Scratch Golfers
The course handicap for scratch golfers can be much higher than most would expect. And expected score (meaning the 80% of rounds that a player doesn’t shoot their handicap) can be well higher than the majority of people would expect for a “scratch” golfer.
Many assume that scratch golfers are expected to shoot par everytime they play.
This could not be further from the truth.
Here are the course handicaps for a scratch golfer playing from the tips at the following courses:
- Bandon Dunes 76.3 (Par 73)
- Pebble Beach 74.9 (Par 72)
- PGA West Stadium Course 74.3 (Par 72)
- Oakmont 76.4 (Par 70)
As you can see, at these courses, a scratch golfer is expected to shoot between 2 over par or better (at PGA West) and 6 over par or better (at Oakmont) only about 20% of the time.
The other 80% of the time, they are expected to shoot 4-10 over par at these courses.
And perhaps most surprisingly, scratch golfers would be expected to break par at these courses less than 5% of the time.
As you can see, understanding what your handicap index actually means and how to calculate your course handicap can greatly affect your perception of whether or not you had a good round.